Peer-reviewed Papers

Burke, Marshall, Mustafa Zahid, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Solomon Hsiang. “Quantifying Climate Loss and Damage Consistent With a Social Cost of Carbon”, Nature, 651 (March 25, 2026): 959–966. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10272-6.

Harris, Mallory, Jared Trok, Kevin Martel, Mercy Borbor-Cordova, Noah Diffenbaugh, César Munayco, Andrés Lescano, and Erin Mordecai. “Extreme Precipitation, Exacerbated by Anthropogenic Climate Change, Drove Peru’s Record-Breaking 2023 Dengue Outbreak”, One Earth, 9 (March 17, 2026): 101619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101619.

Gordon, Emily, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Machine Learning Predictions of Summertime Warming Jumps on Decadal Timescales”, Environmental Research: Climate, 5, no. 2 (March 6, 2026): 025001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae488c.

Qiu, Minghao, Christopher Callahan, Iván Higuera-Mendieta, Lisa Rennels, Bryan Partham, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke. “Valuing Wildfire Smoke Related Mortality Benefits from Climate Mitigation”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123, no. 8 (February 19, 2026): e2533772123. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.253377212.

Hedlund, Johanna, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Extreme Climate Events and Transboundary Effects of Global Crop Trade”, Environmental Research: Climate, 5, no. 1 (February 10, 2026): 015020. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae390b.

Callahan, Christopher, Jared Trok, Andrew Wilson, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Marshall Burke, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Quantifying the Contributions of Climate Change and Adaptation to Mortality from Unprecedented Extreme Heat Events”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122, no. 122 (December 16, 2025): e2503577122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2503577122.

Ly, Amina, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “ Integrating Climate Extremes With Key Biodiversity Areas for Improved Biodiversity Risk Analysis and Protected Area Planning”, Conservation Science and Practice, November 28, 2025, e70190, https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70190. https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70190.

Callahan, Christopher, Jarod Trok, Andrew Wilson, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke. “Increasing Risk of Mass Human Heat Mortality If Historical Weather Patterns Recur”, Nature Climate Change, November 18, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-25. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1.

Qiu, Minghao, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke. “Wildfire Smoke Exposure and Mortality Burden in the US under Climate Change”, Nature, September 18, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-25. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w.

Beltran-Peña, Areidy, Alan Rhoades, Elizabeth Burakowski, Manuela Girotto, Anna Michalak, Noah Diffenbaugh, Hector Inda-Diaz, and Paolo D’Odorico. “Future Implications of Enhanced Hydroclimate Variability and Reduced Snowpack on California’s Water Resources”, Environmental Research: Water, 1 (July 25, 2025): 025004. https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/ade7aa.

Kelp, Makoto, Marshall Burke, Minghao Qiu, Iván Higuera-Mendieta, Tianjia Liu, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “ Effect of Recent Prescribed Burning and Land Management on Wildfire Burn Severity and Smoke Emissions in the Western United States”, AGU Advances, 6 (June 26, 2025): e2025AV001682. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001682.

Keys, Patrick, Elizabeth Barnes, Noah Diffenbaugh, Thomas Hertel, Uris Baldos, and Johanna Hedlund. “Exposure to Compound Climate Hazards Transmitted via Global Agricultural Trade Networks”, Environmental Research Letters, 20 (March 28, 2025): 044039. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb86a.

Gordon, Emily, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Identifying a Pattern of Predictable Decadal North Pacific SST Variability in Historical Observations”, Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (March 2, 2025): e2024GL112729. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112729.

Swain, Daniel, Andreas Prein, John Abatzoglou, Christine Albano, Manuela Brunner, Noah Diffenbaugh, Deepti Singh, Christopher Skinner, and Daniella Touma. “Hydroclimate Volatility on a Warming Earth”, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 6 (January 9, 2025): 35–50. https://doi.org/0.1038/s43017-024-00624-z.

Barnes, Elizabeth, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Sonai Seneviratne. “Combining Climate Models and Observations to Predict the Time Remaining until Regional Warming Thresholds Are Reached”, Environmental Research Letters, 20 (December 10, 2024): 014008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca.

Diffenbaugh, Noah, and Elizabeth Barnes. “Data-Driven Predictions of Peak Warming under Rapid Decarbonization”, Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (December 10, 2024): e2024GL111832. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111832.

Jing, Renzhi, Jianxiong Gao, Yunuo Cai, Dazhi Xi, Yinda Zhang, Yanwei Fu, Kerry Emanuel, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Eran Bendavid. “TC-GEN: Data-Driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Using Machine Learning-Based High-Resolution Weather Model”, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16 (October 5, 2024): e2023MS004203. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004203.

Trok, Jared, Elizabeth Barnes, Frances Davenport, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Machine learning–based Extreme Event Attribution”, Science Advances, 10, no. 34 (August 21, 2024): eadl3242. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl3242.

Choi, June, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burkey. “The Effect of Flood Exposure on Insurance Adoption Among US Households”, Earth’s Future, 12 (June 29, 2024): e2023EF004110. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004110.

Konings, Alexandra, Krishna Rao, Erica McCormick, Anna Trugman, A. Williams, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marta Yebra, and Meng Zhao. “Tree Species Explain Only Half of Explained Spatial Variability in Plant Water Sensitivity”, Global Change Biology, 30 (June 15, 2024): e17425. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17425.