Peer-reviewed Papers

Keys, Patrick, Elizabeth Barnes, Noah Diffenbaugh, Thomas Hertel, Uris Baldos, and Johanna Hedlund. “Exposure to Compound Climate Hazards Transmitted via Global Agricultural Trade Networks”, Environmental Research Letters, 20, no. 4 (March 28, 2025): 044039. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb86a.

Gordon, Emily, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Identifying a Pattern of Predictable Decadal North Pacific SST Variability in Historical Observations”, Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (March 2, 2025): e2024GL112729. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112729.

Swain, Daniel, Andreas Prein, John Abatzoglou, Christine Albano, Manuela Brunner, Noah Diffenbaugh, Deepti Singh, Christopher Skinner, and Daniella Touma. “Hydroclimate Volatility on a Warming Earth”, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 6 (January 9, 2025): 35–50. https://doi.org/0.1038/s43017-024-00624-z.

Barnes, Elizabeth, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Sonai Seneviratne. “Combining Climate Models and Observations to Predict the Time Remaining until Regional Warming Thresholds Are Reached”, Environmental Research Letters, 20 (December 10, 2024): 014008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca.

Diffenbaugh, Noah, and Elizabeth Barnes. “Data-Driven Predictions of Peak Warming under Rapid Decarbonization”, Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (December 10, 2024): e2024GL111832. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111832.

Jing, Renzhi, Jianxiong Gao, Yunuo Cai, Dazhi Xi, Yinda Zhang, Yanwei Fu, Kerry Emanuel, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Eran Bendavid. “TC-GEN: Data-Driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Using Machine Learning-Based High-Resolution Weather Model”, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16 (October 5, 2024): e2023MS004203. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004203.

Trok, Jared, Elizabeth Barnes, Frances Davenport, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Machine learning–based Extreme Event Attribution”, Science Advances, 10, no. 34 (August 21, 2024): eadl3242. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl3242.

Choi, June, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burkey. “The Effect of Flood Exposure on Insurance Adoption Among US Households”, Earth’s Future, 12 (June 29, 2024): e2023EF004110. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004110.

Konings, Alexandra, Krishna Rao, Erica McCormick, Anna Trugman, A. Williams, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marta Yebra, and Meng Zhao. “Tree Species Explain Only Half of Explained Spatial Variability in Plant Water Sensitivity”, Global Change Biology, 30 (June 15, 2024): e17425. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17425.

Ly, A., J. Geschke, M. Snethlage, K. Stauffer, J. Nussbaumer, D. Schweizer, and N. Diffenbaugh. “Subnational Biodiversity Reporting Metrics for Mountain Ecosystems”, Nature Sustainability, 6 (October 12, 2023): 1547–1551. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01232-3.

Gao, Yang, Yubing Wu, Xiuwen Guo, Wenbin Kuo, Shaoqing Zhang, L. Leung, Xiaodong Chen, Jian Lu, Noah Diffenbaugh, Daniel Horton, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Lixin Wu. “More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due to Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High-Resolution Earth System Model”, Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (September 21, 2023): e2023GL105840. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105840.

Ashfaq, Moetasim, Nathaniel Johnson, Fred Kucharski, Noah Diffenbaugh, Muhammad Abid, Matthew Horan, Deepti Singh, Salil Mahajan, Subimal Ghosh, Auroop Ganguly, Katherine Evans, and Shafiqul Islam. “The Influence of Natural Variability on Extreme Monsoons in Pakistan”, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6 (September 21, 2023): 148. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00462-8.

Rao, Krishna, A. Williams, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marta Yerba, Colleen Bryant, and Alexandra Konings. “Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires”, August 2, 2023. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100975.

Qiu, Minghao, Nathan Ratledge, Ines Azevedo, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke. “Drought Impacts on the Electricity System, Emissions, and Air Quality in the Western United States”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120, no. 28 (July 4, 2023): e2300395120. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.230039512.

Trok, Jared, Frances Davenport, Elizabeth Barnes, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Using Machine Learning With Partial Dependence Analysis to Investigate Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Near-Surface Temperature”, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (June 13, 2023): e2022JD038365. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038365.

Ly, Amina, Frances Davenport, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Exploring the Influence of Summer Temperature on Human Mobility During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the San Francisco Bay Area”, GeoHealth, 7 (June 6, 2023): e2022GH000772. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GH000772.

Diffenbaugh, Noah, Elizabeth Barnes, and Patrick Keys. “Probability of Continued Local-Scale Warming and Extreme Events During and After Decarbonization”, Environmental Research: Climate, 2 (May 4, 2023): 021003. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf2f.

Diffenbaugh, Noah, and Elizabeth Barnes. “Data-Driven Predictions of the Time Remaining until Critical Global Warming Thresholds Are Reached”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120, no. 6 (January 30, 2023): e2207183120. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.220718312.

Gonzales, Katerina, Daniel Swain, Heidi Roop, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Quantifying the Relationship Between Atmospheric River Origin Conditions and Landfall Temperature”, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, October 11, 2022, e2022JD037284, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037284. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037284.

Keys, Patrick, Elizabeth Barnes, Noah Diffenbaugh, James Hurrell, and Curtis Bell. “Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment”, National Academy of Sciences, 119, no. 40 (September 27, 2022): e2210036119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210036119.