Peer-reviewed Papers

Callahan, Christopher, Jared Trok, Andrew Wilson, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Marshall Burke, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Quantifying the Contributions of Climate Change and Adaptation to Mortality from Unprecedented Extreme Heat Events”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122, no. 122 (December 16, 2025): e2503577122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2503577122.

Ly, Amina, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “ Integrating Climate Extremes With Key Biodiversity Areas for Improved Biodiversity Risk Analysis and Protected Area Planning”, Conservation Science and Practice, November 28, 2025, e70190, https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70190. https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70190.

Callahan, Christopher, Jarod Trok, Andrew Wilson, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke. “Increasing Risk of Mass Human Heat Mortality If Historical Weather Patterns Recur”, Nature Climate Change, November 18, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-25. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1.

Qiu, Minghao, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke. “Wildfire Smoke Exposure and Mortality Burden in the US under Climate Change”, Nature, September 18, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-25. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w.

Beltran-Peña, Areidy, Alan Rhoades, Elizabeth Burakowski, Manuela Girotto, Anna Michalak, Noah Diffenbaugh, Hector Inda-Diaz, and Paolo D’Odorico. “Future Implications of Enhanced Hydroclimate Variability and Reduced Snowpack on California’s Water Resources”, Environmental Research: Water, 1 (July 25, 2025): 025004. https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/ade7aa.

Kelp, Makoto, Marshall Burke, Minghao Qiu, Iván Higuera-Mendieta, Tianjia Liu, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “ Effect of Recent Prescribed Burning and Land Management on Wildfire Burn Severity and Smoke Emissions in the Western United States”, AGU Advances, 6 (June 26, 2025): e2025AV001682. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001682.

Keys, Patrick, Elizabeth Barnes, Noah Diffenbaugh, Thomas Hertel, Uris Baldos, and Johanna Hedlund. “Exposure to Compound Climate Hazards Transmitted via Global Agricultural Trade Networks”, Environmental Research Letters, 20 (March 28, 2025): 044039. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb86a.

Gordon, Emily, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Identifying a Pattern of Predictable Decadal North Pacific SST Variability in Historical Observations”, Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (March 2, 2025): e2024GL112729. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112729.

Swain, Daniel, Andreas Prein, John Abatzoglou, Christine Albano, Manuela Brunner, Noah Diffenbaugh, Deepti Singh, Christopher Skinner, and Daniella Touma. “Hydroclimate Volatility on a Warming Earth”, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 6 (January 9, 2025): 35–50. https://doi.org/0.1038/s43017-024-00624-z.

Barnes, Elizabeth, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Sonai Seneviratne. “Combining Climate Models and Observations to Predict the Time Remaining until Regional Warming Thresholds Are Reached”, Environmental Research Letters, 20 (December 10, 2024): 014008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca.

Diffenbaugh, Noah, and Elizabeth Barnes. “Data-Driven Predictions of Peak Warming under Rapid Decarbonization”, Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (December 10, 2024): e2024GL111832. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111832.

Jing, Renzhi, Jianxiong Gao, Yunuo Cai, Dazhi Xi, Yinda Zhang, Yanwei Fu, Kerry Emanuel, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Eran Bendavid. “TC-GEN: Data-Driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Using Machine Learning-Based High-Resolution Weather Model”, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16 (October 5, 2024): e2023MS004203. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004203.

Trok, Jared, Elizabeth Barnes, Frances Davenport, and Noah Diffenbaugh. “Machine learning–based Extreme Event Attribution”, Science Advances, 10, no. 34 (August 21, 2024): eadl3242. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl3242.

Choi, June, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burkey. “The Effect of Flood Exposure on Insurance Adoption Among US Households”, Earth’s Future, 12 (June 29, 2024): e2023EF004110. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004110.

Konings, Alexandra, Krishna Rao, Erica McCormick, Anna Trugman, A. Williams, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marta Yebra, and Meng Zhao. “Tree Species Explain Only Half of Explained Spatial Variability in Plant Water Sensitivity”, Global Change Biology, 30 (June 15, 2024): e17425. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17425.

Ly, A., J. Geschke, M. Snethlage, K. Stauffer, J. Nussbaumer, D. Schweizer, and N. Diffenbaugh. “Subnational Biodiversity Reporting Metrics for Mountain Ecosystems”, Nature Sustainability, 6 (October 12, 2023): 1547–1551. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01232-3.

Gao, Yang, Yubing Wu, Xiuwen Guo, Wenbin Kuo, Shaoqing Zhang, L. Leung, Xiaodong Chen, Jian Lu, Noah Diffenbaugh, Daniel Horton, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Lixin Wu. “More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due to Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High-Resolution Earth System Model”, Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (September 21, 2023): e2023GL105840. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105840.

Ashfaq, Moetasim, Nathaniel Johnson, Fred Kucharski, Noah Diffenbaugh, Muhammad Abid, Matthew Horan, Deepti Singh, Salil Mahajan, Subimal Ghosh, Auroop Ganguly, Katherine Evans, and Shafiqul Islam. “The Influence of Natural Variability on Extreme Monsoons in Pakistan”, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6 (September 21, 2023): 148. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00462-8.

Rao, Krishna, A. Williams, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marta Yerba, Colleen Bryant, and Alexandra Konings. “Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires”, August 2, 2023. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100975.

Qiu, Minghao, Nathan Ratledge, Ines Azevedo, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke. “Drought Impacts on the Electricity System, Emissions, and Air Quality in the Western United States”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120, no. 28 (July 4, 2023): e2300395120. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.230039512.