Publications

Barnes, E., Diffenbaugh, N., & Seneviratne, S. (2024). Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached. Environmental Research Letters, 20, 014008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

Diffenbaugh, N., & Barnes, E. (2024). Data-driven predictions of peak warming under rapid decarbonization. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL111832. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111832

Trok, J., Barnes, E., Davenport, F., & Diffenbaugh, N. (2024). Machine learning–based extreme event attribution. Science Advances, 10(34), eadl3242. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl3242

Choi, J., Diffenbaugh, N., & Burkey, M. (2024). The effect of flood exposure on insurance adoption among US households. Earth’s Future, 12, e2023EF004110. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004110

Konings, A., Rao, K., McCormick, E., Trugman, A., Williams, A., Diffenbaugh, N., Yebra, M., & Zhao, M. (2024). Tree species explain only half of explained spatial variability in plant water sensitivity. Global Change Biology, 30, e17425. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17425

Ly, A., Geschke, J., Snethlage, M., Stauffer, K., Nussbaumer, J., Schweizer, D., & Diffenbaugh, N. (2023). Subnational biodiversity reporting metrics for mountain ecosystems. Nature Sustainability, 6, 1547–1551. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01232-3

Gao, Y., Wu, Y., Guo, X., Kuo, W., Zhang, S., Leung, L., Chen, X. ., Lu, J., Diffenbaugh, N., Horton, D., Yao, X., Gao, H., & Wu, L. (2023). More frequent and persistent heatwaves due to increased temperature skewness projected by a high-resolution Earth System Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105840. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105840

Ashfaq, M., Johnson, N., Kucharski, F., Diffenbaugh, N., Abid, M., Horan, M., Singh, D., Mahajan, S., Ghosh, S., Ganguly, A., Evans, K., & Islam, S. (2023). The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 148. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00462-8

Rao, K., Williams, A., Diffenbaugh, N., Yerba, M., Bryant, C., & Konings, A. (2023, August 2). Dry live fuels increase the likelihood of lightning-caused fires. Geophysical Research Letters. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100975

Qiu, M., Ratledge, N., Azevedo, I., Diffenbaugh, N., & Burke, M. (2023). Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(28), e2300395120. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.230039512

Trok, J., Davenport, F., Barnes, E., & Diffenbaugh, N. (2023). Using machine learning with partial dependence analysis to investigate coupling between soil moisture and near-surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128, e2022JD038365. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038365

Ly, A., Davenport, F., & Diffenbaugh, N. (2023). Exploring the influence of summer temperature on human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic in the San Francisco Bay Area. GeoHealth, 7, e2022GH000772. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GH000772

Diffenbaugh, N., Barnes, E., & Keys, P. (2023). Probability of continued local-scale warming and extreme events during and after decarbonization. Environmental Research: Climate, 2, 021003. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf2f

Diffenbaugh, N., & Barnes, E. (2023). Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(6), e2207183120. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.220718312

Quetin, G., Famiglietti, C., Dadap, N., Bloom, A., Bowman, K., Diffenbaugh, N., Liu, J., Trugman, A., & Konings, A. (2023). Attributing Past Carbon Fluxes to CO2 and Climate Change: Respiration Response to CO2 Fertilization Shifts Regional Distribution of the Carbon Sink. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 37, e2022GB007478. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007478

Gonzales, K., Swain, D., Roop, H., & Diffenbaugh, N. (2022). Quantifying the relationship between atmospheric river origin conditions and landfall temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, e2022JD037284, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037284. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037284

Keys, P., Barnes, E., Diffenbaugh, N., Hurrell, J., & Bell, C. (2022). Potential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment. National Academy of Sciences, 119(40), e2210036119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210036119

Diffenbaugh, N. (2022). Introducing ’Environmental Research: Climate’—a new journal devoted to understanding the causes, consequences and solutions of climate variability and change. Environmental Research: Climate, 1(1), 010201. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7e

Diffenbaugh, . (2022). COVID-19 and the environment: short-run and potential long-run impacts. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120920-125207

Rao, . (2022). Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability. Nature Ecology & Evolution. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-021-01654-2

Diffenbaugh, . (2021). Atmospheric variability contributes to increasing wildfire weather but not as much as global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://www.pnas.org/content/118/46/e2117876118

Davenport, . (2021). Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2017524118

Diffenbaugh, . (2021). Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1223

Diffenbaugh, . (2021). On the impossibility of extreme event thresholds in the absence of global warming. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1a

Johnston, . (2021). Quantifying the effect of precipitation on landslide hazard in urbanized and non-urbanized areas. Geophysical Research Letters. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094038

Goss, . (2021). The Atlantic jet response to stratospheric events a regime perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD033358

Davenport, . (2021). Using machine learning to analyze physical causes of climate change: A case study of U.S. Midwest extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021GL093787

Swain, . (2020). Attributing extreme events to climate change: a new frontier in a warming world. One Earth. https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(20)30247-5

Goss, . (2020). Climate change is increasing the risk of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7

Batibeniz, . (2020). Doubling of U.S. population exposure to climate extremes by 2050. Earth’s Future. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001421

Flood size increases non-linearly across the western United States in response to lower snow-precipitation ratios. (2020). Water Resources Research. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019WR025571

Landfalling Droughts: Global tracking of moisture deficits from the oceans onto land. (2020). Water Resources Research. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019WR026877

Gonzales, . (2020). Moisture- versus wind-dominated flavors of atmospheric rivers. Geophysical Research Letters. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL090042

Diffenbaugh, . (2020). The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0079-1/

Diffenbaugh, . (2020). Verification of extreme event attribution: Using out-of-sample observations to assess changes in probabilities of unprecedented events. Science Advances. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/12/eaay2368

Disentangling the influence of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols on South Asian Monsoon daily rainfall characteristics. (2019). Climate Dynamics. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4512-9

Global warming has increased global economic inequality. (2019). https://www.pnas.org/content/116/20/9808.short

Recent warming of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the west coast of the United States. (2019). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029860

Diffenbaugh, . (2019). Reply to Rosen: Temperature-growth relationship is robust. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://www.pnas.org/content/116/33/16171

Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases. (2019). https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaat5982.abstract

Variations in the intensity and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation. (2019). Geophysical Research Letters. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083452

Can ENSO-like convection force an ENSO-like extratropical response on subseasonal timescales?. (2018). Jounal of Climate. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0771.1

Characterizing the spatial scales of extreme daily precipitation in the United States. (2018). https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0019.1

Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets. (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0071-9/

Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions. (2018). Science Advances. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/11/eaau3487?intcmp=trendmd-adv

Group, C.-S. I. W. (2018). Paying It Forward: The Path Toward Climate-Safe Infrastructure in California. http://resources.ca.gov/climate/climate-safe-infrastructure-working-group/

Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States. (2018). Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf07b

Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments. (2018). https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaao3354

Widespread persistent changes to temperature extremes occurring earlier than predicted. (2018).

Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. (2017).

Historical analysis of hydraulic bridge collapses in the continental United States. (2017).

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes. (2017).

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. (2017). https://www.pnas.org/content/114/19/4881.full

Remote linkages to anomalous winter atmospheric ridging over the northeastern Pacific. (2017).

The role of plant CO2 physiological forcing in shaping future daily-scale precipitation. (2017).

Dislocated interests and climate change. (2016).

Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions. (2016).

Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole. (2016).

Regional atmospheric CO2 inversion reveals seasonal and geographic differences in Amazon net biome exchange. (2016).

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California. (2016).

A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century. (2015).

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California. (2015).

Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends. (2015).

Debunking the climate hiatus. (2015).

Evaluation of non-hydrostatic simulations of Northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers and comparison to in-situ observations. (2015).

Future property damage from flooding: Sensitivities to economy and climate change. (2015).

Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends. (2015).

Observed and projected climate trends and hotspots across the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) regions. (2015).

Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions. (2015).

The potential climate change impacts on U.S. federal hydropower generation. (2015).

The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future. (2015).

Chapter 26: North America, in C.B. Field et al., Contribution of Working Group II to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. (2014).

evere precipitation in Northern India in June 2013: causes, historical context, and changes in probability. (2014).

Joint bias correction of temperature and precipitation in climate model simulations. (2014).

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility. (2014).

Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season. (2014).

Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events. (2014).

Projected changes in African easterly wave intensity and track in response to greenhouse forcing. (2014).

Regional climate summary figures (Box CC-RC), in C.B. Field et al., Contribution of Working Group II to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. (2014).

Sensitivity of the warm rain process in convective clouds to regional trends in tropospheric warming in the contiguous U.S.. (2014).

The extraordinary California drought of 2013-2014: character, context, and the role of climate change. (2014).

Transient 21st century changes in daily-scale temperature extremes in the United States. (2014).

Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates. (2014).

Changes in ecologically-critical terrestrial climate conditions. (2013).

Effects of U.S. Tax Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions. (2013).

Likelihood of July 2012 U.S. temperatures in pre-industrial and current forcing regimes [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"]. (2013).

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the United States: state of knowledge. (2013).

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.. (2013).

Nonhydrostatic nested climate modeling: A case study of the 2010 summer season over the western United States. (2013).

Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high-resolution, ensemble experiment of 21st century climate. (2013).

Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. (2013).

The contribution of African easterly waves to monsoon precipitation in the CMIP3 ensemble. (2013).

Agriculture and trade opportunities for Tanzania: past volatility and future climate change. (2012).

Amplification of wet and dry month occurrence over tropical land regions in response to global warming. (2012).

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble. (2012).

Human well-being, the global emissions debt, and climate change commitment. (2012).

Influence of 21st century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate. (2012).

Out of the tropics: The Pacific, Great Basin lakes, and the Pleistocene water cycle in the western U.S.. (2012).

Response of air stagnation frequency to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing. (2012).

Response of corn markets to climate volatility and alternative energy futures. (2012).

Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming. (2012).

Using climate impacts indicators to evaluate climate model ensembles: temperature suitability of premium winegrape cultivation in the United States. (2012).

Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States. (2011).

Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming. (2011).

Implications of the permanent El Nino teleconnection "blueprint" for past global and North American hydroclimatology. (2011).

Observational and model evidence for global emergence of unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. (2011).

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States. (2011).

Biophysical considerations in forestry for climate protection. (2010).

Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania. (2010).

Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States. (2010).

Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections. (2010).

Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. (2010).

Rapid, time-transgressive, and variable responses to end-Pleistocene/early Holocene midcontinental drying in North America. (2010).

Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution dynamical downscaling. (2010).

Temperature and equivalent temperature over the United States (1979-2005). (2010).

The Pleistocene water cycle and eastern boundary current processes along the California continental margin. (2010).

Evaluation of high-resolution simulations of daily-scale temperature and precipitation over the United States. (2009).

Impact of climate volatility on poverty vulnerability in developing countries. (2009).

Influence of modern land cover on the climate of the United States. (2009).

Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the west African monsoon. (2009).

Projected trends in severe, extratropical thunderstorm forcing. (2009).

Suppression of South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century. (2009).

Climate change hotspots in the United States. (2008).

Developing regional climate change scenarios for use in assessment of effects on human health and disease. (2008).

Does global warming influence tornado activity?. (2008).

Extension and intensification of the Meso-American mid-summer drought in the 21st century. (2008).

Future changes in runoff timing over the western United States. (2008).

Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management. (2008).

Hydrological variability and change. (2008).

Protecting climate with forests. (2008).

The regional climate change hyper-matrix framework. (2008).

Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency in the 21st century due to anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. (2007).

Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot. (2007).

Indicators of 21st century socioclimatic exposure. (2007).

Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. (2007).

Response of California Current forcing to mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface temperature. (2007).

Telescoping, multi-model approaches to evaluate extreme convective weather under future climates. (2007).

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century. (2006).

Simulated changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events at 6 ka. (2006).

Summer aridity in the United States: Response to mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface temperature. (2006).

Atmosphere-land cover feedbacks alter the response of surface temperature to CO2 forcing in the western United States. (2005).

Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. (2005).

Response of large-scale eastern boundary current forcing in the 21st century. (2005).

Sensitivity of extreme climate events to CO2-induced biophysical atmosphere-vegetation feedbacks in the western United States. (2005).

Could CO2-induced land cover feedbacks alter near-shore upwelling regimes?. (2004).

Mid-Holocene orbital forcing of regional-scale climate: a case study of western North America using a high-resolution RCM. (2004).

The effect of Late Quaternary climate and pCO2 change on C4 plant abundance in the south-central United States. (2004).

Future climate change and upwelling in the California Current. (2003).

Orbital suppression of wind driven upwelling in the California Current at 6 ka. (2003).

Vegetation sensitivity to global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in a topographically complex region. (2003).

Global climate sensitivity to land surface change: The Mid Holocene revisited. (2002).